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The Reasons you are Losing Money Day Trading Stocks

Are you losing money day trading stocks? You may have heard the numbers that 95% of traders lost money or that just a couple of percent of traders earn a living at it. The simple fact is many traders will lose money day trading stocks and it can not be easily prevented. All kinds of reasons are given for your losses, such as bad luck, poor cash management, poor time, or a bad plan. The fact is, however, while you may make money in the short term, over the long-term you are more likely to lose trying to day trade, and should therefore most likely stick to longer-term investment strategies.

Stock Price Movement

To comprehend why many who trade stocks lose, we will need to understand how stock prices move and what causes them to move. In addition, we should take into account the high amount of folks who get involved directly as soon as the price is going to change. This is the place where the bulk of losses occur.

If a purchasing frenzy takes hold in a current market, it is difficult to observe the motion for what it is: something which will end. But at the present time, people view other folks purchasing, making them believe they should they purchase today then other people would purchase after them. Anytime you create a speculative buy, you’re doing this because you think other people would purchase after you, pushing up the price which permits you to sell for a gain.
Stock prices increase if more folks are stepping into purchase than are eager to sell. While we could do all kinds of fancy analysis and also create predictions, all we’re really doing is creating a wager that individuals will step in to purchase or sell. We’re analyzing individuals, since it’s individuals who purchase and market and cause stock price to proceed. And it is those who create repeating patterns, which we are able to trade from, in the financial markets.

Buying at the top

An uptrend is made by an increasing number of people continued to push the stock up. Folks will need to be ready to pay higher and higher prices. Finally, there are not any more individuals that are eager to purchase at higher prices, or you will find more people eager to sell than buy. The men and women who bought close to the top are left handed the losses.
One large issue is that a very high amount of individuals become involved directly close to the top. After the masses have piled there’s absolutely no one else to purchase and the men and women who bought previously in the tendency begin to market, which scares the men and women who purchased late in to sell, and the domino effect starts bringing down prices.

Let us look for instance: GameStop (GME) in 2021. Towards the beginning of 2021, a great deal more people became curious with the news on GameStop and the message boards. With all the news on GameStop there was a explosion, and a hope of quick wealth, bringing a completely new batch of buyers to the stocks. While early on, GameStop made possible sense as an investment due to potential positive catalysts. However, later these catalysts were already priced into the stock and that’s when the masses began to jump in and many sustained large losses. Early investors were rewarded while late ones suffered losses.

Definitely, involvement was the greatest near the very top. While informed investors made money off this buying frenzy, the people who made the purchasing frenzy (and also the information shows they purchased in the top), dropped a great deal of cash.

The majority of men and women become concerned near turning points. Which means most men and women shed, and therefore are from the simple fact that the catalyst for turning the marketplace another way. There’s a limit to all, and also the mass frenzy triggers that limitation to be struck.
However, the marketplace keeps slumping greater and a number of those stragglers combine in and purchase. Some still hold out as well as the marketplace keeps ticking greater. Finally, most of the populace is bullish, and there are still a few stragglers, along with the market keeps moving up. At length, pretty much each man who may possibly buy is currently in, and marketplace plunges the other way.
When fund managers have practically no money available it means they’re fully invested on the sector which means a change is very likely to happen shortly. The dilemma is that the marketplace doesn’t generally reverse reduced before the funds/investors are in, and it does not move considerably higher until cash was pulled from the sector and many funds/investors are holding a lot of money to reinvest.

The marketplace is not likely to reverse to some substantial degree until nearly everyone is on both sides. Which means nearly everyone who joined the party late will lose. A whole lot of people might just opt to wait but will the marketplace. And when people are split, then the marketplace will proceed into a such fashion. Without a high number of individuals to make an intense, the marketplace will not hit an intense and reverse.

Not only are many people left holding the bag on top, they also often scared out of the market at market bottoms. Their capitulation selling signifies there’s not any one left to market, so shortly after the purchase price starts climbing. Once the prognosis is the most gloomy, since everybody you know is losing money and everything you see on TV is how poor the markets really are, there’s strong incentive to market and follow the audience. Yet more, the audience makes a bad choice, which it can not help doing, and also the market turns another way.

The examples are only supposed to demonstrate that the majority of individuals shed by behaving in mass in precisely the exact same moment. The masses can not avoid it, since it’s there actions that exhausts the tendency and drawbacks it. Although a long-term graph of the market indicates the purchase price of stocks climbing, keep in mind that the majority of the individuals are flushed out since they’re purchasing near selling and peaks close slopes. Moreover, those long-term graphs of the stock exchange, such as the S&P 500 indicator, do not incorporate the stocks which have gone bankrupt or even fallen on tough times. The S&P 500 just includes top businesses. If a business starts losing money, it’s dropped from the catalog and consequently has no negative impact on it.

Following the Crowd

That is where ineffective traders fail and the audience loses money. After you hear from the friends and the networking is how great that this advantage is performing, or how awful that advantage is performing, it is difficult to have a contrarian perspective. As people, we have a tendency to default to accessibility prejudice, which is presuming that which we hear frequently. Should you make a wager against everybody else and you’re incorrect, your buddies laugh at you or you’re feeling sheepish. You experience sorrow for missing while some gain.

There’s a social cost not to be a part of the audience. You can not speak about transactions with other people, or you have to tread carefully since the majority of folks won’t hold your opinion. Should you have an opposite view into the audience, and you’re right, people can despise you because you made cash while they lost their top. Sound absurd?

It’s extremely simple to think you can get out ahead of the crowd. Following through on this is rather difficult. that is the reason why audiences move collectively. Everybody in the audience thinks that. Furthermore, if you know bid and ask prices, once people begin to market there are just so many stocks are every cost level, and thus in the event that you would like to get out you want to market to a lower bid price, then a lesser price, then a lesser one. Everyone can not get out, just the fastest and most seasoned commonly get out before real harm is done.

Nonetheless, it isn’t the professional cash manager demonstrating their ignorance, it’s those critics who know nothing about market moves. Most marketplace movement is made by professional money managers that are handling trillions of dollars in resources, and by additional professionals/businesses. Many of those fund managers will under-perform. Nearly all traders and investors won’t beat the grade because they create and are part of the benchmark.
What’s really intriguing is that while a fantastic hedge fund may create a mean of 20% year during the previous twenty decades, the typical investor in that finance has a higher likelihood of earning less than that. Why? Since they spend and pull out their capital at the wrong time. Particular traders do be able to outperform consistently. A number of different dealers and novice traders return to the markets using a small number of bills and lose it. There’s a steady and constant stream of those folks. They nourish the kitties of these traders who are successful. Additionally, the fact that all these men and women pile into (from ) market tops (bottoms) means you will find positive opportunities for the ones that may maintain an objective eye on the marketplace.

For a person to win, somebody else has to lose or give up gain.
The huge returns which lure folks in droves into the markets are what generate huge returns for losses and others into the droves. Crowds can not create powerful tendencies until all are involved. A tendency will not stop until almost everyone is on board with the audience. Considering that the audience can not triumph, that means just a small fraction of people can.

Day traders get trapped in precisely the exact same audience behavior without understanding it. That increasing stock they see all morning before leaping in, just to get it move another way, is precisely the exact same happening on a smaller scale. They experience brief long bursts of emotion that lead to short and long term actions/reactions, all resulting in patterns that are observable on all time frames. You will find are also levels of bullishness and bearishness over time frames, meaning times the trends and reversals are going to be competitive and sometimes more sedate based on the number of dealers (and the people ) are included.
The most important thing is that traders should stick to some well-defined strategy and trade that strategy even if it’s uncomfortable. Because the majority of the populace is more than pleased to combine with the audience, by having subject together with an adequate strategy it’s likely to be among the few successful dealers that does not participate in the audience’s losing ways.

Think Independently to be successful

For people who actively wish to trade, do not be tempted into the general audience. Think independently, so doing your research. Have a look at charts and see how costs responded to unique occasions and cost patterns. Develop or find out strategies for benefiting from shared price patterns. You do not have to be correct all of the time, even if a pattern just works out 50 percent of this time, however if you earn more on winners than you shed on winners, that’s a winning blueprint. In producing your own trades according to your research and strategies you’ll at times be aligned with all the audience, and at times you won’t. However, it does not matter. You are trading your game, according to data you understand and trust from performing your study and analyzing your strategy.
When you’ve got a technique, switch off the TV, discussion boards, along with other’s views of this marketplace. You’ve completed the job on your strategies, so expect them. Everybody comes to trading stating they will be better than everybody else, or that they simply need a small taste of their profits and they’ll be happy. However, to earn money consistently means that you have to be at the top few percentage on the planet. Being at the top few percent of whatever is not simple. However, it can really be as straightforward as purchasing and holding an index fund to get a slow accumulation of earnings. That’ll place you ahead of a good deal of hedge fund shareholders. Or, if you would like higher yields that are certainly possible, it entails learning or developing plans and then placing them into training more actively
We’re just as great as our subject. We could be a fantastic trader daily, and stink bad another if we stop following our strategy. A lot of men and women feel that once they get profitable they could unwind. Can you see professional athletes simplicity away after they make it into the pros?
Those that survive like it. They like the challenge and the contest. People who adore trading will place in hours without day considering it. Individuals who just trade to earn a fast buck won’t ever have the ability to compete with the individual who enjoys it and immerses himself in the practice of studying and improving. Only trade in the event that you truly wish to. With no fire you’re at a massive disadvantage to the men and women who possess it.
While I think that it’s very important to clarify things people know what they’re getting into. You need a great deal of time to become successful at trading, and put in a great deal of time to keep that performance and attempt to improve. Though some with commitment, time, and enough funds can be successful in trading, the majority of folks will lose. As people we have an option regarding how much effort we will put into it.

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April is National Financial Literacy Month

Through the entire month of April, organizations throughout the nation conduct an assortment of activities and execute initiatives designed to enhance financial literacy, particularly among our country’s youth, and also encourage financial well-being for many individuals. Originally, NEFE turned Financial Literacy Day to the Jump$tart Coalition to promote one of its network of domestic partners and country coalitions. Jump$tart Coalition in 2000 started promoting April as Financial Literacy for Youth Month and afterwards, as only Financial Literacy Month. April is occasionally known as National Financial Capability Month, but whatever the tag, the attempt to increase consciousness regarding the importance of financial literacy and the requirement for successful financial education is a cooperative mission and a shared objective.

Originally, Financial Literacy Month advocates hoped it would ignite national, state, and local authorities, in addition to colleges, nonprofit organizations, companies, and people, to celebrate the month with financial literacy programs and actions. While no U.S. president has signed a statement officially declared the month, the House and Senate have completely supported National Financial Literacy Month through joint settlements. Through the years, Financial Literacy Month has also played a vital part in the national plan for financial literacy, not just in the United States but in other nations too. By devoting a month to financial literacy, policymakers acknowledged its significance before allowing financial disasters that cost people, families, communities, and nations when financial understanding is lacking.

The month is an outstanding opportunity to examine and update your own financial smarts. Whether you are just beginning or have been making your self knowledgeable for quite a while, it is never too late to find out about saving and enhancing your financial outlook. Creating a foundation and constructing financial understanding is the basis for a brighter future. National Financial Literacy Month places the significance of learning about financing as well as the tools to find out about them directly from the classroom, also.

Regardless of the era of our kids, placing the know-how and tools at their hands provides them the capability to make wise decisions today and in the foreseeable future. Invite your pupils to take part in a financial literacy program. Take the time to educate your kids more about financial responsibility and search resources and tools that will assist you direct them through the pitfalls. Stop by MoneyInstructor.com to learn more and utilize #FinancialLiteracyMonth and #MoneyInstructor to discuss on social networking. We encourage everyone to promote financial education in this month and throughout the year.

Kids & Money, Personal Finance, Teaching MoneyLeave a comment

5 Ways To Make Sure You Don’t Have Any Credit Card Debt

At some point each of us will be approached to sign-up for a credit card. Some of us decide we don’t want to take up the offer, citing that we don’t want to have spiraling uncontrollable credit card debt. Others decide to take up the offer, and that’s exactly what happens – spiraling uncontrollable debt! However, there is a third way: take up the offer and make sure you don’t have any credit card debt, all you need to do is keep in mind the following:

It’s a credit limit, not unlimited credit!
A mistake common to most first time credit card users is that the credit card limit “needs” to be used. There also appears to be a common misunderstanding that credit cards are “free” credit. In fact, neither could be further from the truth. You don’t need to use the credit card limit, and it is not free credit! Conversely, if you want to affect a manageable credit card debt scheme, you’ll start to put away the money you would otherwise have spent on the credit card purchase into an interest-bearing savings account and then use this money to make the repayment of your credit card bill when you get your next statement.

Pay as you go, don’t go as you pay!
Another common mistake made by most credit card users is to use the credit card when they don’t have the ready means to make payment for the product being purchased in cash. Sensible credit card use, where you don’t encounter unmanageable levels of credit card debt, means that you pay off your credit card balance in full at the end of each statement period. Here, make no mistake about it, credit cards are dangerous and expensive means of funding debt if you do not have the intention to be disciplined enough to at least try to make the repayment in full each statement period. If need be, use the credit card again in the next statement period; but do everything in your power to make sure you clear the balance at the end of the statement period!

Don’t just pay it – look at it
A third common mistake made by credit card users is just to pay the minimum balance at the end of the statement period. It’s almost as if they’re ashamed to see how much they charged to their card. But, you should keep in mind that credit card fraud is rife and so you should check your credit card statement each period to make sure you have not been charged for something which you clearly did not charge to your card. This goes double if you have charged anything to your credit card over the internet. To this end, not reviewing your credit card statement at the end of each payment period is a sure fire way to ensuring that you’ll soon have an unmanageable credit card debt!

Calculate the interest & fees – don’t just take their word for it!
As with all matters of finance, if you want to ensure you use your credit card properly and do not encounter any excess or unmanageable credit card debt levels you’ll need to educate yourself on how the process of credit cards, their interest rates, and their fees work. Always keep in mind that it is not uncommon for people to make mistakes and a computer is only as good as the person programming it! So, although it may not happen often, there is a chance that you may spot a mistake in the calculation of interest and the fees payable.

If all else fails – don’t be afraid to cut your credit card up!
As soon as you start to think that your credit card debt levels are starting to take control of your life, the time has come for you to cut the card up and to start to eliminate the credit card debt as quickly as possible. Do not, at all costs, let the credit card debt take control over your financial well-being, or take the risk of spending many a sleepless night wondering how you are going to make your next credit card debt payment.

Debt & CreditLeave a comment

How to Deliver a Successful Training Course

Whether you just received an assignment from your boss to develop a training course, or you are a manager that wants to train your staff on specific skills, you may be wondering how to get started. Not all companies have a training staff. And, while most people have attended a training course at some point, few ever give thought to what it takes to develop and deliver a successful curriculum, until they are thrust into the spotlight. Don’t panic! There is a rational way to approach this.

First, you need to gather information. If the task was assigned to you, find out from your manager what she wants to accomplish with this training. What should the students know at the end of the class? If you were going to issue a certificate, what would it certify your class members to do? If you are the manager, sit down and think through what you want to accomplish with this training. Set goals. And develop an evaluation sheet for students to complete when they are finished with the course work. Ask questions that will give you feedback about whether you met your goals. Did they learn what you wanted them to learn? Did they find the course interesting? What would they want to see improved? What did they like the best?

Next, you need to find out about the people who will attend the class. Are their skills very diverse or are they all in the same profession with approximately the same knowledge base? Teach to the lowest level student in the class. If you have to spend an hour getting that one person up to speed, so as not to bore the others in the class, consider spending time with the student before the class, or giving them ‘pre-work’ to get them closer to the class average.

Depending on the class mix, and the type of people you are teaching, you might consider sending out an advance questionnaire. If you are teaching upper management staff, and you don’t want to waste their time, you can find out what your boss expects, and get her permission to poll the students. Find out what they want to get out of the class and what their hot buttons are, so you will be on target with your curriculum. But understand that you can’t be all things to all people. Try to hit 80% of the common factors defined in the questionnaire and you’ll be fine!

Before you send out announcements, decide how long this class will be. The length of the session(s) will depend on the planned curriculum, who will be in the audience, and what you want to accomplish. Be sure to include plenty of breaks so you don’t lose the attention of the class. And, if the training or seminar is confidential or sensitive, you may want to seriously consider an off site location.

When you have all your information together, you can start to develop the training class. Look at the time available; add in at least one 10-15 minute break for every 2 hours of teaching time. Consider a longer lunch if you have managers or critical employees in the class. They will need time to eat and make important phone calls before going back into the classroom. Once you have calculated the break time, you can calculate the total hours of teaching time. Subtract a small percentage for getting the class settled after each break, and for unexpected interruptions and questions.

Take your total available hours and break it down into components. Assign times to each component so that you can use the agenda to let the class know what you are doing and when. If there are segments that a particular member does not need to attend, they will know when they can leave without missing anything that is important to them.

Now, write your curriculum, including presentation slides, handouts and notes. Mix up the media to keep it interesting. Don’t just stand in front of a dark room and talk or you will hear a lot of snoring after the first hour. Typically, the slot after lunch is the most deadly. Serve a light lunch, and then keep the sessions interactive for at least the next hour, so that people do not fall asleep! Keep the training sequence logical. Don’t skip around. Start with background and foundation, and then build on that until you get to the final segment. Always test for understanding to be sure you aren’t leaving any student in the dust. Leave time for questions and answers at the end of each day. Use a mix of presentation/explanation, questions and answers, and interactive work. Get people up out of their chairs! Have them take notes on a flip chart, take a poll that requires voting, or break them up into small groups to come up with solutions to problems. In other words, keep them involved! If you are teaching a software course, you can give them individual exercises, followed by a group exercise using the software. That will keep the group interaction at the right level and the class members are more likely to call on each other after the sessions are complete if they want to ask a question, or see what someone else remembers. Building a class bond is a good thing!

You always want to offer support and be accessible after the sessions are over, in case students have questions. Be sure to provide handouts and exercises so that they can review them if they need a refresher, and give them a place to take notes in their class notebook. Provide all the supplies they need for the course, and meals and break snacks. And don’t forget proper ventilation (not too warm and not too cold) and comfortable chairs.

There you have it! That is, by no means, all there is to know, but it will get you started. Good luck on your teaching venture.

Business, Communication Skills, Sales and MarketingLeave a comment

World Economics

The study of world economics (also called international economics) is the study of all of the factors that influence the movement of goods and money around the world, and because it is so intricately tied, the related politics. This includes trade and trade policies, justifications for protection, currency systems and exchange rates, the monetary and fiscal policies of world governments and economic development.

Trade and trade policies

Trade policies can be most simply divided into two schools of thought: free trade and protected trade. Free trade proponents advocate a system of trade whereby all goods would cross all country borders freely, without restrictive taxes or import duties. In this theory, the efficiency gained by each country producing what it produces best and cheapest overrides any losses by individuals who produce those same goods and will lose their advantage when imported goods are introduced. There are two types of efficiencies addressed in this theory: production efficiency and consumption efficiency. Production efficiency recognizes that some countries that can produce more of a good or service (with the same amount of resources) than others. Consumption efficiency recognizes that consumers in a free trade environment will have a greater collection of goods and services from which to choose. The proponents of protected trade seek to protect individual industries and even companies within a country from what they perceive as unfair competition.

Justifications for protection

The justifications for protection include the potential for unemployment, development of new industries, national security and the threat of foreign monopolies. Some concerns envelope more than one of these aspects. For instance, protection of the American steel industry is deemed important not only for the jobs that are lost when the steel mills close down, but also the concern that a nation such as the United States should not become totally reliant upon foreign steel. In addition, it is charged that foreign steel industry is only successful because of protectionism and the monopolistic policies of foreign governments.

Currency systems and exchange rates

A currency system is the medium of exchange that a country uses to settle its debts with other countries. Most countries have their own exchange rate. (Although, since 2002, most of the member countries of the European Community have agreed to use the same currency, the Euro, and drop the mark, franc, florin, lira, etc.) But many countries that have a currency of their own which they use for domestic settlements may use a benchmark currency to settle international trade or debt. This so-called “settlement currency” is usually the United States dollar.

The exchange rate is a quotation given by stating the number of units of a country’s currency that can be bought in terms of 1 unit of another country’s currency. For example, if we say that the Euro-U.S. Dollar exchange rate is 1.2 USD per Euro, that tells us that it will take 1.2 U.S. Dollars to get 1 Euro.

Monetary and fiscal policies of world governments

Most governments view their role in economics as a balance in which they have to protect their citizens from adverse movements in the economy such as unemployment, inflation and economic hardship with the needs of the security of the nation. Governments use two main tools for achieving these objectives: fiscal policy, which is the level of spending by the government and the imposition of taxes and issuance of debt to fund that spending, and monetary policy, through which governments attempt to manage inflation by managing the supply of money. The fiscal policy of a government determines what the government should be spending money on, the protection of the nation or social programs or which combination of both and, once decided upon, whether taxes will be raised to pay for the programs or whether government bonds will be issued to raise these funds voluntarily. The monetary policy of a government attempts to achieve certain economic goals such as lowering inflation, raising employment levels or spurring economic growth. This is done through managing the money supply by changing interest rates (through buying or selling their own currency) or by changing reserve requirements of banks, (open market operations), and setting the reserve requirements, the amounts banks have to leave on deposit with the central bank, thus loosening or tightening the amount of money in circulation.

Economic development

Each unit of government, from the national level all the way down to towns and municipalities are interested in fostering the economic development of their constituent area. Even on an international scale, organizations such as the OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, set goals and design programs to spur controlled economic growth. On national and local government levels, governments establish many organizations with the purpose of generating new jobs or retain existing jobs, and stimulating industrial and commercial growth.

A nation’s economic development policy, coupled with its trade policies, economic protection systems, manipulations of currency, monetary and fiscal policies will strongly influence its politics and its relations with other nations.

EconomicsLeave a comment

The Basics of Financial Markets

The term “market” refers to a place or group of places where people can exchange certain goods or services for money. There is, of course, the basic “market” drawn from medieval exchanges wherein buyers and sellers would gather to exchange money for goods. Today, there are all sorts of markets, ranging from the supermarket that sells our everyday food and household products, to the art market, the real estate market and even the drug market. Our current financial markets are generally based on the types of goods or “assets” that are traded on them. The most well known and most commonly traded are the equity market, the bond market, the foreign exchange market and the currency market. Each of these markets have a vast assortment of instruments that are “traded” on them.

The equity market is the financial market that is most commonly known among the public. The term comes from the fact that a company’s value is known as its equity, or its equity stock, and it can sell parts of that equity to investors. These parts of its equity are known as “equity shares” or “stock shares” and hence we have the expressions “buying shares on the stock market”, or “owning shares of a stock”. These shares do not pay any interest; the value of shares in the equity market go up an down constantly, so those who buy them are counting on the value going up, so they can sell them at a higher rate. Remember Will Rogers advice on the stock market: “Buy when the price is low and sell when the price goes up. If the price doesn’t go up, don’t buy.” Since the rest of us don’t have that kind of hindsight, we just hope the price goes up. Shares on the stock market do not pay any interest, so anyone investing in them is only hoping to make money by the increase in the value (price) of the shares. The stock market is divided by company size (measured by capitalization), industry or type of growth pattern. Investors and their advisors therefore talk about large-cap vs. small-cap stocks, energy vs. technology stocks, or growth vs. value stocks, for example.

The fixed income market is comprised of bonds, notes, bills, and certificates of deposit. The fixed income market is called just that because, unlike stocks, the securities on it pay interest (income) to the holder. Each bond, note, bill or certificate of deposit is issued at an interest rate that will be paid the holder, either over time or at maturity. Companies or governments issue bonds to fund their day-to-day operations or to finance specific projects. The owner of a bond, note, bill or CD does not own a piece of the company, as the owner of a share does. A bond holder, in essence, is lending money for a certain period of time (until the maturity date) to the issuer of the bond. That issuer may be Ford Motor, the U.S. Government, the City of Los Angeles, or the Government of Brazil. The bond holder will get back the “loan” amount plus interest payments at the maturity date of the bond. The underlying value of the bond may change during the course of holding the bond. If the bond was issued with an interest rate (coupon) of 8%, and interest rates on other, similar bonds are being issued at 10%, this bond will become less attractive to other buyers and will become less valuable. This is not an issue if an investor intends to hold onto the bond until maturity, but if he wants to sell it at some point before it matures, the face value may be less. It may also be more, if interest rates on similar bonds went down to 6%, a bond paying 8% would be more valuable.

The commodities market is comprised of promises to buy or sell goods such as wheat, oil or gold at a certain price on a certain day. This market evolved from the nineteenth century Midwest market where farmers (sellers) and dealers (buyers) committed to future exchanges of grain for cash. Farmers gave up any increase in the price of their crop for the security of knowing their crop was sold for a set price, even if the bottom fell out of the market. In time, these contracts became a market of their own, as they changed hands before the delivery date. Before long, traders who had no intention of ever buying or selling a crop, but who thought they could outguess how the price of the commodity would perform, were trading commodities for the potential profit.

The currency market, also known as the foreign exchange market, or the Forex market, is where companies or governments that need to settle their debts in another currency, can obtain that currency. If the owner of a shoe store in the United States wants to buy leather shoes from Brazil, he will have to obtain Brazilian Reals in order to pay for them. (Or, the manufacturer in Brazil may accept the dollars, but have to sell them for Reals when he receives the dollars.) Banks and brokerages perform this exchange service and, in addition to charging a fee for it, will try to make money off the fluctuations of the various currencies that they exchange. Just as with the commodities markets, the allure of buying a currency at a low rate and selling it higher appealed to speculative types, and today the currency market is dominated by speculative traders who never actually use the currencies they buy and sell.

The derivatives market is comprised forwards, futures, options and swaps on all of the underlying products in the above markets. Both companies and governments, when faced with the increasing risks of issuing stocks and bonds, or covering commodity or foreign exchange positions, have decided to manage or reduce these risks and to hopefully increase returns. The derivative market is an intensely complex market wherein almost any aspect of debt or risk can be broken away into a separate trading instrument and bought or sold. These sales are made on the basis of a guaranteed future sale at a current price, which is known as the underlying price. For example, the company that issued the 8% bond in our above example, may want to manage the risk of that 8% bond if the interest rates go down by selling off the coupon on the bond and financing it at a lower rate through the use of a derivative.

Investing and Financial PlanningLeave a comment

Fundamentals of Economics

Economics has been known as the dismal science ever since Thomas Carlyle coined the phrase to summarize T. R. Malthus’ sad predictions in the 19^th century: that the fate of humanity’s economic life would be poverty, hardship and even starvation. In most of the developed world today, this prediction has not been borne out, but in many third world nations, there are large pockets of poverty, hardship and starvation, and the contrast between these worlds illustrates some of the fundamentals of economics at work and how they are all interrelated.

The most basic principle of economics is the “law of supply and demand”, which is based on the concept of scarcity of goods. Since there are no “goods”, including the means to pay for those goods, that are unlimited in supply, human beings have to make choices between the options open to them. Even air and water, the basics of life, can be limited so that water in the desert and air on a mountain command a premium. Each person makes a decision as to how he wants to allocate his limited resources. In a subsistence society, man allocates his only resources, time and labor, to raising food, building shelter and weaving cloth. If the soil and weather conditions are optimum in a certain locale, it would be easy for each member of the society to raise enough crops for himself and have some left to give to his neighbor in exchange for something the neighbor may have. However, if crops were that easy to grow, everyone would have more than they needed, which would force the value (prices) of these crops down. Imagine, however, that trees were very rare and so it was difficult to build a strong shelter. The enterprising members of this society could travel to a region where there was wood and spend their time and labor resources obtaining this good. This is called the “production possibility frontier”, which, in turn will affect the law of supply and demand. The wood to build shelters would become very valuable since there would not be much of it, since it requires so much in resources to produce. Now each member of this society has to decide on how much of his relatively cheap food he is going to give up in order to obtain the expensive wood.

We have the same choices in modern, industrialized societies. Each member has to choose how he is going to spend his limited resources. Some of the members may have very few resources and have to spend most of them on basic necessities. Others who have few resources many nevertheless make different choices, to cut back on a basic such as shelter in order to afford a luxury such as cigarettes. Many members of developed societies have more than enough resources to obtain food, clothing and shelter and need to make their economic decisions about whether they want to live in big house or live in a smaller house and afford a nice vacation every year. These choices (cigarettes for a nicer apartment, a vacation instead of a bigger house) are called “opportunity costs”, since each member is giving up one thing (the cost) to obtain something else (opportunity).

In some societies some items may be cheaper than others. Homes in Switzerland are very expensive because building materials and land are scarce and therefore expensive. Relatively speaking, homes in the United States are cheap because the United States has a lot of natural resources and land. This is the principal of “comparative advantage”. Members of society in Switzerland have to make different choices regarding shelter than members of society in the United States.

As societies develop, these shifts constantly and naturally occur, so that if the price of housing comes down, our smoker may still be able to afford a better apartment, and our homeowner might be able to keep his big house and still go on vacation. Housing prices (cost of shelter) may come down because the supply of housing in the area goes up or interest rates go up and make it less desirable for people to have a mortgage.

At a certain point, however, in each society and for each good, choice becomes more limited. Once the price of cigarettes becomes so expensive that a smoker could no longer afford them and an apartment, he would have to give up cigarettes in order to have a place to live. No matter how expensive food became, members of both subsistence and advanced societies would have to have food. This is the principal of “elasticity of demand”. The demand for food is very inelastic because it is essential to life. The demand for other goods, such as cigarettes and vacations is elastic. We will give them up in order to have food and shelter.

Woven into all of these economic principles, however is another principle. There are some consumers who, no matter how high the price of cigarettes becomes, or not matter what they had to give up to take vacations, would still pursue that good. This is the principle of “utility”, which measures the perceived benefit each consumer receives from the goods he chooses. On an individual basis, this sometimes contradicts the laws of supply and demand. Since, under the law of supply and demand, as prices rise for an elastic good such as cigarettes go up, demand should go down and all smokers should no longer buy cigarettes. An addicted smoker, however, will sacrifice many things in order to afford cigarettes now matter how high the price. Someone who can’t live without vacations may end up with no home and just “follow the sun”.

These fundamentals of economics, therefore, can be summed up by these interrelations: the law of supply and demand, as determined by the comparative advantage of different societies and the production possibility frontier, dictates prices, which dictate demand, except as affected by the elasticity of a good and its utility to the consumer.

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Understanding Basic Business Accounting

If you ever wondered what the whole idea of business accounting was all about (but were afraid to ask) now is the time to learn. Most accounting terminology is complicated and scares off those who are not trained in the field. Acronyms and jargon abound, just like in any field, but the basics are really just logic and common sense. So even if you don’t know your EBIT from your working capital, you can understand the basic concepts of how a company keeps (or is supposed to keep) its books.

Accounting Books

The “books” of a company were, at one time, literally that. Each company had a book in which it would tally money coming in and money going out. That is the essential premise of a basic accounting system. What was left over after the money came in and the expenses went out was the owner’s capital or equity. He always had a choice of putting that money in his pocket (withdrawing his equity) or leaving it in a bank account or buying more equipment or products for his company (building assets). If, in any given period, his business expenses exceeded his income, he would have to put more money in to cover the difference (inject capital or equity).

Double Entry Bookkeeping

In order to keep track of things, a company will establish a chart of accounts to put each of the entries into. The chart of accounts will list income items, expense items and asset and liability items. The way of keeping track of income and expenses is the “double entry” bookkeeping system, which record debits and credits. In this system, each transaction has a balancing transaction. A debit is what you got, and the credit is the source of the item you received. When you set up your business, you put your personal money in a business bank account. You debit that bank account and credit your owner’s equity account because that bank account now owes you money, the amount you put in it. If you buy a ream of paper to send out sales letters, you debit your “stationary” expense account and you credit your bank account with the amount of the purchase. The bank account balance has gone down, so the bank account owes you (in the form of your owner’s equity) less. You own a ream of paper worth that amount of money instead.

When you have a few sales resulting from your fabulous sales letter, you will deposit money and debit the business bank account. That bank account now owes you more money again. Most items in running a business are “expensed” in this way, but many times an item might be used over and over again, such as a computer or a machine. The money you spent on the paper is gone once the sales letters have gone out. Those funds are “expensed”. But the computer that you typed them on stays to do more work. You need to account for such an item in a different way. That item is “capitalized” and listed in your books as an asset. The bank account that you used to pay for it was credited, and an asset account is debited. This asset will not last forever, so this asset account is reduced a little bit each year to reflect the fact that the computer is getting older and is not worth as much. Theoretically, after about five years, you will want to buy a new computer, so the cost of this computer should be spread out over five years until it is fully “amortized”. The other “double entry” side of this is that one fifth of the cost of the computer is expensed each year. You can then throw out that computer, get a new one and start all over.

Owners Equity

To better understand the workings of an accounting system such as this, it is helpful to pretend that the company goes out of business at the end of each year. Whatever is left at the end goes back to the owner as his equity. Suppose after one year, our fictional sales business owner closed up shop. His business would be worth $4,100. His bank account has $12,500 in it. (He put in $10,000, spent $500 on paper for sales letters and $2000 for a computer, and earned $5,000 in sales.) He still has a computer that is worth $1,600 because it was worth $2,000 and decreased in value by $400 a year. His total assets-short term assets in the bank and long term assets in the computer-are worth $14,100. His only liability against these assets is his own initial investment (if he never borrowed any money). So, even though the business is worth $14,100, if he kept his double entry books right, the business owes him the owners equity of $10,000 and is therefore worth $4,100.

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Reading an Annual Report

Publicly traded companies are required by law to publish an annual report to their shareholders. Many companies publish quarterly reports as well. Though there is no government mandated format that an annual report should take or the exact information it should contain, custom has developed some standards, and some professional accounting organizations have required compliance with certain formats to be considered “generally accepted”.

Typically, the report will begin with the Chairman’s letter. This should note significant developments over the period being reported and plans and predictions for the next period. In a large company, the operations of various segments or operating centers will be described and commented upon.

The next, and to some the most important section of an annual report is the financial section. This will contain the profit and loss statement (the P&L, or income statement), the balance sheet and the cash flow statement. The P&L lists all of the summarized income and expenses for the firm, and the net profit or loss resulting from the difference. The level of detail for the income and expenses differs for each company, making it difficult to determine the factors responsible for the profit or loss. In addition, varying and sometime unorthodox treatment of some types of costs may mask underlying problems the company is experiencing. These are the types of issues that covered up the problems with Worldcom, Adelphia and Parmalat in recent years.

The next section of an annual report is the Balance Sheet, which lists all of the assets and liabilities of a company. The difference between the assets and liabilities of a company is the company’s net worth. This has also become an area of reporting controversy when creative accounting has allowed some companies to capitalize some expenses (in other word, make them long term assets) instead of treating them as current (in other words, putting them on the P&L). The Balance Sheet has always been described as a “snapshot” of the company; if an acquisition is made on January 1 and the annual report is as of December 31, that asset will not be reflected. Accountants should use footnotes to inform the shareholders of any pending items such as this as well as lawsuits or other items that may have a material effect on operations. Valuable information about the organization’s financial status is often found here even if it is not obvious in other parts of the report. Information on a management reorganization may signal problems in the executive suite, or a bad debt that was written off by the company may only be seen in the notes since it was included in a summary expense line.

The final segment of the report is the auditor’s letter confirming that a Certified Public Accounting firm (CPA) has deemed the information to be accurate and presented under the relevant accounting principals. Any qualifications presented by the auditor should be carefully evaluated.

Remember that the annual report is published by the company itself, and by its Public Relations Department, at that. They are the ones who are paid to make the company look good. So, make sure you get your information about the company through other means, such as the business press or independent analyst’s reports.

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Understanding Investment Management

Investment management firms manage the portfolios of individuals, partnerships, corporations, corporate and public retirement plans, non-profit entities and endowments.

These portfolios can be invested in individual stocks and bonds, mutual funds, outright ownership of property or commodities, foreign exchange and the futures markets. Deciding the mix, scope and concentration of a portfolio under management is one of the most crucial responsibilities of investment management.

In recent years, investment managers have had to face the additional challenges of major losses by investors in a bear market environment, lack of confidence by investors due to mutual fund scandals, and a host of resulting legislation such as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. This has resulted in a shift in philosophy of the investment management community from edgy and “top gun” management styles to analytical styles emphasizing client involvement and understanding, computation, more sensible risk management, and more humility in seeking investment performance at acceptable risk/reward levels. It is this analysis of investment risks/rewards in a portfolio, that is, measuring the tolerance for risk against the desire for reward of each individual or company that an investment company manages, that determines the composition of that portfolio.

Each individual or company that uses an investment management firm should have a clear concept of its investment philosophy, and must clearly communicate it to the management firm. In general, companies will have clear, written statements of investment policies and guidelines that have been approved by the board of directors. Individuals tend not to be as formal in their approach, but any reputable investment manager will make sure his individual clients have done an exercise outlining the kinds of risk they are willing to accept for a certain level of reward. It is in these documents that the company or individual will assign a level of “discretion” that the investment manager will have. Levels of discretion may range from full discretion over all purchases and sales in the portfolio, as long as they are within pre-ordained guidelines, to the requirement that every acquisition and divestiture needs direct approval. Within these two extremes, levels may be set according to size of investment or quality of investment.

A critical feature of proper investment management is continual review by the individual or, for a company, by its top management or board. Needs change, investment environments change, the amount under management changes, and therefore concentrations shift. All of these conditions have to be periodically examined, new investment policies have to be developed and the portfolio has to be adjusted to maintain compliance with the new policies.

To these tools (investment guidelines of the company and the underlying philosophy, and understanding the risk mentality and management style of the client), the investment manager will add the technical tools of his trade such as assessing markets, pricing capital assets, fundamental analysis to valuate stocks and bonds, cash flow analysis and various technical analyses to develop a tailored portfolio for each client.

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